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Cake day: March 5th, 2025

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  • Which is still not a wartime economy. You are right that Russia is forcing the private sector to pick up the slack. Majority of military spending does not go into the Special Military Operation. The majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia. These irregular volunteer formations rely on their local regional government to supply them with weapons and equipment alongside crowdfunding campaigns and donations from organizations like the Popular Front.

    This is well shown by the Tuvan volunteers who come from the poorest region in Russia which shows in their equipment:

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    Here are donations from the Popular Front:

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    Chechnya was probably affected the most by this war economically speaking as they have recently taken up the burden of training and equipping a large portion of volunteers:

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    So most of the federal government’s military spending (which is still larger than the entirety of Europe’s military spending combined when using PPP which is what really matters when talking about militaries) is actually not being used for the SMO but for a large-scale military buildup for future operations. This means regional governments are the ones footing the bill. But even so, they are not at a wartime footing. These regional governments outside of Chechnya are really only providing their soldiers with the bare essentials which really shows in Russia’s performance in this war. Like instead of actual military vehicles, soldiers are recieving old bread loafs and other civilian vehicles.


  • Russia does not have a wartime economy. They are only spending 6% of their GDP on their military which is comparable to the US or Poland in terms of percentage of GDP. EU has given up far more than just a portion. UK has supplied Ukraine with all of its SPGs. Poland supplied Ukraine with half of its SPGs. The US has supplied Ukraine with 15% of its entire ATACMS stockpile (a missile which is no longer produced and does not yet have a viable alternative due to PRSM still being in low-rate production) as of six months ago. The EU has given up a significant portion of their ammunition to Ukraine. The only thing they did not give is tanks because Ukraine already had a thousand tanks at the start of the war (half of which were modern) which is more tanks than the amount that France, Germany, and the UK have combined.

    Most of the Russian military is not in Ukraine per my other comment.


    1. Oryx states otherwise. Russia has only lost 127 T-90Ms despite producing 240-360 in 2023 and likely double that this year. Russia has only lost 789 T-72BA and T-72B3 tanks after three whole years of war despite having 2,650 of them at the start of the war with hundreds of older T-72Bs being taken out of storage and modernized to replace losses.
    2. Storm Shadow is not a ballistic missile but a cruise missile. Only 3,000 have been produced after 2 decades while Russia produces more than 500 Kh-101 air-launched cruise missiles per year. And the Kh-101 is much longer range… Including other air-launched cruise missiles, Russia is producing around a thousand per year. Production has also been outpacing use.
    3. Ukraine has a wartime economy spending 30% of its GDP. Russia meanwhile is only spending 6% of its GDP on the military (comparable to US and Poland in terms of percentage of GDP.

  • I doubt that this will piss Putin off as much as some may think.

    Putin (may god bless his grand pecks) knows how Trump ‘negotiates’, that is Trump says a lot of nonsense and you have to treat Trump as if he is writing up the best damn deal for America of all time even if it is a load of nothing (like USMCA which is renamed NAFTA or the US-Ukraine Mineral Deal which would have given Ukraine tons of investment in return for mostly fuck all). You have to treat the little orange self proclaimed god-emperor as if he really is one.

    Trump hates Iran because Iran embarrassed him.

    Trump hates Zelenskyy because Zelenskyy shat on him and attempted to embarrass Trump.







  • Except most of the Russian military is not in Ukraine.

    The war in Ukraine is mostly fought with irregulars who are not given the best of equipment. Why waste good equipment on poorly trained irregulars?

    Russia had 170 BTGs fully composed of professional soldiers at the start of 2021 but only sent in 64-69 of them in 2022. Russian BTGs were also sent into Ukraine at half strength. This is similar to what happened during the war in Donbas with BTGs keeping half of their strength at home, again similar to War in Donbas.

    The majority of forces in Ukraine are from irregular volunteer formations recruited from regions across Russia. There is a reason why losses for professionals are so low. Aside from these formations, there is also 51st GCAA and 3rd GCAA made up of former Donetsk and Luhansk units. There is also 3rd AC which is a irregular volunteer formation that was formed during the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkov where Russian professionals withdrew under the cover of 3rd AC who was thrown into the meat grinder to stem the tide.

    Motorized Rifles: 6,457

    VDV: 3,257

    Naval Infantry: 1,305

    Tank Crew: 1,806

    Artillery: 851

    Special Forces: 736

    Engineering: 291

    Navy: 291

    VVS: 265

    Other: 957

    Total: 16,216

    Source: MediaZona

    For comparison:

    US losses from 2003-2005 mainly against insurgents: 5175

    Source: Defense Casualty Analysis System

    MediaZona also proves that the majority of losses now are volunteers from irregular volunteer formations. These are irregular volunteer formations by the way:

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    These irregular volunteer formations rely on their local regional government to supply them with weapons and equipment not the federal government. This is well shown by the Tuvan volunteers who come from the poorest region in Russia which shows in their equipment:

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    They also rely heavily on donations:

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    Thankfully Chechnya has recently taken on the burden of training and equipping them (why you see them being shipped from Chechnya) as shown here:

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    Chechnya training and sending more batches of volunteers from across Russia to the SMO zone:

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  • Seems like Russia forced an agreement, then called it invalid when Ukraine stuck to the terms.

    What do you mean? The "agreement quickly broke down, with violations by both sides."

    That doesn’t sound like Ukraine sticking to the terms.

    Russia claimed that the Minsk agreements did not apply to their operations in Debaltseve and Ukraine used similar arguments when launching their own operations into grey zones as you can see here:

    “Yuriy Biriukov, an adviser to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, says that almost the entire “grey” zone in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, has been liberated from Russian-led forces without breaching the Minsk peace agreements and is under control of the Ukrainian army.”

    Zelenskyy refused to federalize the country despite Ukraine having the obligation to give eastern territories autonomy through federalizing the country because of the Minsk Agreements. Ukraine also had the obligation to uphold linguistic rights to ethnic minorities but violated the Minsk Agreements with the 2019 language law which didn’t outright ban the Russian language but did discriminate against those who did not speak Ukrainian or an EU language.

    Yeh, so Russia wasn’t happy. And instead of going “this isnt in the spirit of the agreement” decided to botch an invasion, and is now targeting civilian targets.

    You can claim that Ukraine not upholding the Minsk Agreements doesn’t justify the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, you’d be right but that doesn’t mean that Zelenskyy’s actions did not have a hand in starting it. Although personally, I see Russia’s 2022 relatively nice peace terms to be proof that while the invasion is horrendous, the current narrative is nonsense as well.

    Ukraine isn’t targeting civilians.

    Belgorod disagrees, with one shelling in the center of Belgorod for example killing 21 including 3 children.


  • It seems like Allawites in Latakia are staging an uprising with remnants of the former Assad regime launching attacks across the country (but mostly in Lakatia).

    This has to be some coordinated attack, it is too sudden. If you asked me yesterday if the Syrian civil war would heat up again, I would have said no but things might change due to recent events.

    Pro-Assad forces also have just taken control of the Latakia naval academy.

    Edit: Commander of the Russian Forces in Syria, General Yuryevich stated this:

    “If HTS convoys approach Khmeimim, we will turn them into ashes. We are monitoring the situation closely.”

    Also, Anti-HTS forces have taken control of artillery batteries on top of Mount Yunus, the highest strategic peak on the Syrian coast.


  • No way dude! But with what industry though?

    In all seriousness, Russia was producing 20-30 T-90Ms per month (or 240-360 per year) in 2024 going off of monthly deliveries. The entirety of Europe cannot even match this. The only country I am aware of that can produce this many tanks per month is South Korea and China. This has likely increased since then but due to increased OPSEC, there have been no videos of batches of T-90Ms (or even T-72B3s) being delivered. But missile production has doubled since 2024 so I would not be surprised that tank production has also doubled to 40-60 per month (480-720 per year).

    I have been keeping track of T-90M deliveries for a while now:

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    It was always around 20-30 per month last year. This means Russia produces more tanks than the amount the entire German military has in a single year. And as I stated, this likely has doubled but it is impossible to verify as OPSEC means we have not seen any deliveries on video for half a year now. Europe can’t even produce their own ballistic missiles which have been a game changer in Ukraine as shown by the effectiveness of ATACMS and Iskander-M.

    Russia is producing more shells than the entirety of Europe combined who struggles to supply Ukraine with even a million shells (while Russia was producing 3 million per year in 2024).




  • But it’s zelenskys fault that Russia invaded

    Yes, he failed to implement Minsk II as he claimed he would during his election campaign.

    Instead, Ukraine proceeded to implement new language laws which discriminated against the Russian language (going against the agreement), continued to imprison and torture political dissidents after the agreement was made as per Amnesty International which was also in violation of the Minsk Agreement which explicity stated that Ukraine was not allowed to imprison or punish people due to events related to the war in Donbas. Ukraine also refused to allow local elections in violation of the agreement.

    "Ukraine insists that local elections can take place only after a complete ceasefire and withdrawal of all Russian troops and weapons.

    Clear violation of the agreement as the entire agreement was Ukraine allows local elections, Russia withdraws then everyone’s happy. Russia can’t do its part if Ukraine doesn’t. The agreement specifically stated that elections come first and then withdrawal not the other way around. Ukraine clearly violated the agreement.

    Or, it’s a military target? Without children and civilians?

    Hiroshima was a military target but we both can agree that there were civilians there.

    There weren’t military personnel there?

    There indeed was, please check the guy at the last second of this video

    Unless you want to argue that a humanitarian aid worker is equipped with camouflage, try again.