FuckyWucky [none/use name]

Pro-stealing art without attribution

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Joined 3 年前
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Cake day: 2023年3月21日

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  • Ok. So, TQQQ is basically the entire US tech sector (ai bubble and all) but it goes up 3 times up or down (roughly, it’s a bit more complicated). Since its an ETF you can’t lose more than you put in unlike other types of leverage. SPXL is the 3 times version of top 500 US corps.

    I buy up small amounts every month since it gives variety of prices. You automatically buy up more shares during a downturn and less during a boom (ofc you need a steady income, which can be hard to come by if you are a private sector worker during a recession)

    JNK/XCCC the ETF provider buys up a bunch of low credit rating corporate debt. When there is a financial crisis, certain big traders are forced to dump these at a discount (due to company/legal requirements) which makes it sell at a discount of what it should be given actual default rates of underlying debt. Fed especially makes sure that highly rated debt (A’s and B’s) don’t discount too much. XCCC is junkest of the junk so extra risky.

    The bad part of such ETFs are that they pay as dividends, and if you are a non-US investor, you end up paying 15-35% to the US depending on country as withholding tax. You may get double taxed which can be a real drag on returns. Some countries allow you to claim withholding to reduce your tax liability. To counter this, you can buy an accumulating ETF which allow you to pay taxes as capital gains in your own country (though there is a 15% drag still, since most of accumulating ETFs are located in Ireland and Ireland has a 15% withholding tax treaty with the U.S.).

    PE ratio shows how overpriced shares are given the current level of actual earnings.


  • Mine was much lazier (trading or ‘investing’ idk). I started buying up TQQQ (3x Leveraged NASDAQ-100) ~$150 a month (to get a wide variety of prices) starting in early 2024. The bubble grew and grew and I made like 50% return. I think with constant trading, it becomes very difficult emotionally, you end up selling stuff at a loss.

    I don’t trust 2026 to be good (unemployment going up, weak US economy, bubble not likely giving actual returns, Fed rate cuts) so I sold it and went back to corp/sovereign bonds (existing purchases). Sold at a pretty good price since TQQQ hasn’t recovered from it’s peak. I am still buying SPXL (triple leveraged S&P 500) though (small amounts $60/m) because I do not know when it will bottom out. Is it going to succeed always? Idk, but relying on the US Gov to prop up stock prices as long as the market exists is a strat.

    Also put some in junk bond ETFs like JNK & XCC. These ones usually drop hard when there is a run to liquidity, usually more than fair value, esp considering the Fed props up the credit market (Fed in fact bought small amount of JNK during COVID crisis).

    Edit: I think the easiest thing you can look at is the PE ratio.







  • Denmark giving transfers to Greenland increases demand for Danish goods themselves. It’s similar to Germans whining about them subsidising “lazy” Greeks. That’s not how capitalism works, under it spending of any kind can create employment, and imports by Greeks were financing Germany’s low fiscal deficit, since current surpluses were high while maintaining employment.

    So under capitalism purely looking from “selfish” economic perspective :

    1. Denmark gains demand for its goods form Greenland increasing its own output and employment.

    2. Greenland gets access to more goods and services than it would be able to if it were independent.

    This isn’t anti-independence, just that Greenland losing out on transfers will likely reduce its imports. But at the same time, Greenland having its own currency may also allow it to spend in ways it can’t currently ie improve productivity, employment so the loss of transfers may be somewhat offset.

    Quite different from say, USSR giving transfers to Cuba. Since USSR operated under a centrally planned full employment economy, any transfer meant loss of resources but no higher employment (since it was already at full employment). Very different from capitalism.

    In this case:

    1. The USSR lost access to oil and other goods which it could’ve sold to other countries for foreign exchange or real goods/services while not gaining additional employment.

    2. Cuba gained acesss to real goods from the USSR allowing it to have higher standard of living.