I really hope China doesn’t legitimately try to take Taiwan someday. Would be a terrible day for Earth.
Very likely within the next few years unfortunately
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Taiwan currently produces some of the worlds besteht chips via tsmc and holds a very powerfull geological Position in the "south china’’ sea
Even if they managed to recover all chip factories after a full scale invasion (which the Taiwanese could easily sabotage), the production is based on a lot of western technology, which they couldn’t replicate for decades. So the factories would be of little use.
Chinas economy is also very reliant on exports to western countries (US, Japan, Europe), if they invaded Taiwan that would plunge the world economy into the worst crisis ever seen that would hit China especially hard. They’re already struggling with serious demographic and other economic issues that will put them into a difficult spot in the next decades. Invading Taiwan would be very, very terrible for basically everyone, and suicide for the CCP.
I agree with you, but I also thought that about Ukraine, so who knows
I think your consideration isn’t bad and many, including myself, believe China won’t attack…unless there’s a weak US President/leadership. Consider that Crimea was invaded under Obama but Ukraine was outside the west’s protection; same can currently be said of Taiwan but Taiwan is less about what is has to offer to the west (beyond a western friendship) and more about containing China deep into their waters. Ukraine had a lot of political tensions in the early 2010s and I think Obama was stuck in a nuanced position that ultimately boiled down to: how committed and effective will Ukraine be against Russia (corruption was a huge consideration around 2014). But Obama should have done more (including the EU) sooner. This allowed Trump to play both sides: publicly lick Putin’s boots while allowing military assistance to Ukraine - pleasing the military complex at the very least, regardless of who won. But even as Trump’s administration was wrapping up their mess, you could tell some in the GOP were setting a stage for pulling back military assistance; still are trying. Biden made sure assistance was unwavering and wants to degrade Russia in the eyes of the world while the west’s military complex shovels in taxpayer money. Taiwan, under Democrat leadership, is an easy choice: they’re not corrupt even with their wing of China friendly politicians, they’re trained and continue to be armed to the teeth with only one purpose: hold until the west comes to their defense (including S Korea and Japan). I honestly believe Hong Kong was too hard to defend from China but perhaps it might have played out differently under a Democrat POTUS. Lastly, Taiwan doesn’t have to “win” so much as make sure China doesn’t win; I think the US would be fine with another North South Korea tension if it keep China in their waters and off of Taiwan and their waters; most notably off of their eastern waters/shores.
Til
It wouldn’t be suicide unless they are stupid or incompetent, as most of the world won’t respond with violence. Trump probably wouldn’t respond militarily, but Biden plans on it. The dumbest thing China could do is attack the US first, or too directly, as most of the world won’t offer military support otherwise. Pacific Asian countries won’t proactively get involved, but will aid the US to protect against China. If China only shoots Americans that directly attack them, they’ll be able to paint the US as the aggressor who’s meddling in an internal conflict. If they attack military bases or ships enforcing a blockade too directly, the US will be galvanized, and if they attack first to cripple the US’s ability to blockade fuel imports, the world will be galvanized and WWIII becomes likely.
China’s best strategy against Biden’s America is to totally forgo maintaining any chip technology whatsoever, taking Taiwan as quickly as possible with no regard for collateral damage. If they don’t succeed within a month, the mainland will suffer dearly, and if they piss off the American public too much, they’ll face constant hostility from the largest military on earth.
Biden will be motivated to maintain pressure, while Trump won’t want to waste American resources unless China attacks unprovoked for some dumb reason. Trump will do stupid shit like trying to invade Mexico and putting tariffs on all imports, but he’s less likely to fight China if they don’t provoke him. However, Trump is still risky, as if he gets personally upset at China, he’ll escalate dangerously just to show strength. China will be motivated to limit collateral damage and take Taiwan more slowly, so Trump doesn’t get as mad about the economic hit from invading. Ironically, China now wants Trump in office and Biden out, while it was almost the reverse in 2020.
I’d be surprised if any country responded militarily. It’s not in the interest of anyone to risk WW3 over Taiwan, and China knows this. In contrast to Russia, they are probably competent enough to take Taiwan in a day or two before anyone can send significant aid.
There would be massive economic implications though. The most effective deterrence that western countries have are sanctions, and they can’t let China invade without consequences to keep the deterrence effective (also for other countries), so they’d have to be used. Investment in China would probably be banned for decades to reduce reliance.
If hundreds of millions of Chinese fall back into poverty due to the invasion, that would be a serious threat for political stability in China.
That’s why Biden would respond with force. He needs to make good on the deterrence, but will avoid escalating too far.
It’d be a tremendously stupid thing to do. Unfortunately for everyone, Xi Jinping might just be that stupid.
According to Wendover (neat youtube channel), the “deadline” of that event is likely 2027. Whether it will happen or not is a whole different story
I thought the same, but theres been a lot of exposed strife in xi’s perfect little world and he is quickly losing all the blood in his warboner. If anything is gonna happen, im guessing it’ll happen within a year or two. Any longer and xi wont have enough economy or technology to sustain even a remotely scary military.
This is excluding nukes.
100% CCP will try soon.
uMm ItS aKcHuAlLy ThE cPc CaLlInG iT cCp Is ImPeRiAlIsT aMeRiKkKa PrOpAgAnDa
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Q: How do you determine who is cheating in the online game you’re playing?
A: Declare that Taiwan is best China. All the cheaters will start screaming.
kinda weird to say all Chinese citizens are cheaters. and by weird I mean OVERTLY RACIST.
fuck the CCP but all 1.4 billion Chinese people are my homies. I aint gonna sit and listen to some little shit on lemmy call my homies cheaters
Their culture literally encourages cheating. Is it racist to say things that are fucking true?
How does it do that? Could you explain?
能骗就骗
“If you can cheat, then cheat.”
From education to business, cheating is seen as fair play by a huge majority of people. And things like their stupid ass social credit system don’t help things, when getting ahead can literally be the difference between life and death.
That’s just how the economy works in literally every country ever, sounds to me like the Chinese are just honest about it
is it racist to imply that it is only the chineese who cheat at online games?
who knows
It’s somewhat racist, but it’s also got some truth to it. Anywhere internet cafés are a thing cheating tends to be more popular. They’re usually not using their own account, so there is no risk to cheating. Internet cafés are prevalent in China and Russia, so there’s a stereotype of them being cheaters. That’s not to say they all do it, but it’s more likely than most other places.
Obviously, the Russians do too
It’s just blatant racism, why is it being upvoted
Is that a thing, Chinese people being known for cheating in online games?
Yes. China has a huge hacking problem. Anytime there is a ban wave of hackers in just about any competitive online multiplayer game that Chinese players have access to, the vast majority of the IPs banned are Chinese. The gaming cafes over there even advertise hacks.
It has to do with their culture. Chinese culture is very cutthroat and survival of the fittest. It makes people have the mindset of doing anything they can to win or be successful, even if it means cheating. It’s not just video games. They have a huge problem with it in their education system, as well. It’s also why there is so many cheap copies and counterfeits of different products made in China.
“Chinese people” aren’t known for being cheaters in games, except maybe by xenophobic anglophones. However, there are businesses in China that make a living through selling digital gaming items acquired through illegitimate means. Similar to how there are a lot of scam companies based in India - but that doesn’t mean “Indian people are cheaters”. People in India hate scammers too, and gamers in China hate game scammers.
Shouldn’t the one at the top be East Ukraine on the same basis?
Taiwan (or The Republic of China) is a special case in that it doesn’t want independence from the PRC*, but rather they claim that all of China is part of the ROC and is illegally occupied by the PRC. The PRC, likewise, views Taiwan as a rebellious little part of their own country.
*I learned just now that there’s a political movement that eschews this view and instead just wants sovereignty for the land currently owned by Taiwan.
Anyway, as far as I know, Ukraine doesn’t make any similar claims to Russia (except for certain contested areas).
As a pro-Ukranian Russian: fuck you. If Ukraine will try to conquer a single square inch of Russian land I’ll volunteer to be in factory making tanks, despite being a trans girl
Do you think Crimea is Russian land?
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Nah, Taiwan only avoids forsaking these claims because doing so would be interpreted as a formal declaration of independence, prompting an invasion.
Why are you including Tibet in that?
I’m so sick of this"West Taiwan" crap. It plays into the PRC narrative that China and Taiwan are inseparable. Most Taiwanese just want to live their lives without needing to worry about China invading. The official ROC territorial claims remain in part due to the 2005 Anti-Secession law of the PRC. The law provides a legal mandate to invade if Taiwan were to declare formal independence. In general the only people in Taiwan who want to govern China are older nationalists.
Couldn’t help but notice Honk Kong (UK) sticking out like a sore thumb. Anyways f*** imperialism/colonialism!
This is actually a possibility in the game Terra Invicta. If you have annex claims on China as Taiwan, and then confederate the nations, they become ‘Unified Taiwan’.
i doubt that Chinese nationalism decayed in the Republic of China.
It’s a game. You’re thinking too hard.
or not enough
Now do West Palestine
I mean, doesnt that kinda play into the PRC’s narrative that Taiwan and China are the same country?
Ok but this is literally true, broth the PRC and the ROC claim to be the real china
“real china”
Someone post this on hexbear and send me a screenshot.
I’d do it myself but I value my sanity
I would, but I got banned for daring to disagree with their narratives. Apparently brigading other instances and users is fine, but you have the audacity to go there and debate their lunacy, and it’s ban time.
I had to block their Instance. I am very sympathetic and generally agreeable to many communist ideals but their brigading and style of that community is annoying.
lmao
